Hungary's Premier Is Fearful of Turmoil in Ukraine
By STEVEN ERLANGER
BUDAPEST, Hungary, April 29 — Viktor Orban, at 37, is one of Central Europe's most unusual politicians, leading a political and cultural counterrevolution against what he considers the residue and inheritors of Hungary's Communist past.
He became famous in 1989 when, as a scruffy opposition leader, he called for the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary, articulating the desires of the whole region.
Born in the provinces, he retains a visceral dislike for the tainted elites of the capital who he says collaborated with the old Communist government.
He has moved his party, Fidesz, to the center-right, hoping to create a lasting alternative to the Socialists, all the while plucking at Hungarian nationalist heartstrings.
He has pressed hard for entry to the European Union, sided firmly with the United States on a range of security issues and says Hungary, as one of the alliance's newest members, feels secure within NATO, which he would like to see expanded to Russia's borders.
But just now, in his third year as prime minister and as he prepares to meet President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney for the first time this week, the new reach of President Vladimir V. Putin's Russia and the political turmoil in neighboring Ukraine seem uppermost in his mind.
"Ukraine is the key country in the whole new European security structure, and probably Ukraine deserves more attention," Mr. Orban said in an expansive interview, suggesting that it would be a prime topic for him in Washington, where the new administration has had little to say so far about Ukraine.
"Without the guaranteed independence of Ukraine, the whole post- cold-war security architecture of Europe is in danger," Mr. Orban said. "For Ukraine to maintain its independence, in all senses, especially in political and security terms, is vital for all of Europe."
With Ukraine's Western-minded prime minister, Viktor Yushchenko, ousted last week and President Leonid D. Kuchma facing constant protests as he is accused of corruption and ordering the murder of a journalist, Ukraine is open to meddling from Moscow, Mr. Orban said.
Both Mr. Yushchenko and Mr. Kuchma support a more democratic, Western style of government, Mr. Orban said. "What is going on now in Ukraine is an attack on this structure, to pull Ukraine back into the chaos where it was," he said. "And chaos in Ukraine opens up the possibility of the loss of Ukraine's independence, and the candidates for a more pro-Russian Ukrainian foreign and security policy are there — they are already on the stage."
He insisted that he did not want to speculate, but then added: "So who is behind this development? I would not forget about the possibility of the more Russian-oriented political groups."
Mr. Orban has been criticized by his opponents as aggressive and even authoritarian, limiting the powers of Parliament, but he says that in his time in office he has become "less harsh."
"People want to see leadership in the country," he said, explaining how he had survived the disgrace and fall of a corrupt coalition partner while improving his own ratings. "I solved a conflict — that's their understanding — and I maintained leadership. Thinking not with the mind of a politician, we have to admit that this is the right approach."
Mr. Orban calls for a better attempt by the West to analyze Mr. Putin's efforts to reorganize Russia and restore its influence, this time not through tanks and soldiers but through economic might.
While tanks and soldiers are noisy and obvious, Mr. Orban said, much Russian money is hidden and laundered. Efforts to buy shares in Hungarian energy and chemical companies are being investigated by the government, "and I've learned a lot," Mr. Orban said, aided by a unit of the F.B.I. here that concentrates on Russian organized crime.
"Free trade and economic cooperation are good things, and we don't want to discriminate against Russian capital," he said. "But it's not transparent capital. We worry that money laundering and organized crime and suspicious offshore companies are involved."
As for Russia, he said, "we should try to understand them with a Russian logic, but that doesn't mean accepting all their arguments." And he said he would like to see NATO expanded to include the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, a proposal strongly opposed by Moscow.
"I understand there are difficulties," he said. "I've been a politician for several years, but I still try to listen to my heart."
Mr. Orban spoke in English, only rarely looking to aides for English phrases. He was voluble and amusing, going off the record to discuss other regional politicians and acknowledging that corruption in Hungary remained a problem, "but not so severe as the opposition says."
Such allegations from the opposition, he said, using a Hungarian expression, are "like the owl telling the sparrow he has a big head."
He conceded that his government's effort to promote Hungarian companies for key state contracts created "a tension" with competitive bidding, but said he was trying to strike a balance. The opposition, of course, says his government merely favors companies that contribute to his political party and its allies.
Mr. Orban's fiercely anti-Communist Fidesz party is running even in opinion polls with the Socialists, who are the reformed Communist Party, with about a quarter of the vote each.
All other parties, including the Liberals, who were once in coalition with the Socialists and could be again, get less than 5 percent, and more than 40 percent of voters interviewed say they are undecided.
Despite disarray among the Socialists about their leadership, Mr. Orban insisted that he would not call elections until next April at the earliest, so his government would complete a four-year term — an important message of stability, he said, to voters and foreign investors.
And his aides have promised that Fidesz will not go into any formal coalition with MIEP, an anti-Semitic nationalist party that effectively supports the government.
Win or lose, Mr. Orban says he is proud of trying to bring clear language to Hungarian politics and some optimism to the young.
"Those with education have the duty to find language to bring ordinary people into the common affairs of the nation," he said passionately. "People feel that politics is part of their lives and belongs to them, not just to the elite."
When he was growing up, he said, his grandmother, reflecting "the melancholy of our national character," begged him not to be confrontational or a troublemaker.
"Just being gray and having no dreams was a good thing," he said. "That kind of pessimistic approach to the future was very common in Hungary. I can't say it's over, but we're living under a new tendency, with more people brave enough to have their own dreams of the future."
April 30, 2001